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| Image courtesy of E! Online. |
As always, my thoughts on the Academy Awards remain this: I watch the show for amusement, but in no way do I believe that the Oscars represent the best in filmmaking from any given year. Among the 90 films to have won Best Picture, there have only been 15 that I consider to have been the best movies of the year in which they were awarded.
So, below find my list of who I think will win the Oscar this year, plus who I believe the dark horse candidate for an upset could be as well as who I'd personally like to win and who should have been nominated.
Best Picture
Nominees: BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star is Born, Vice
Will Win: Roma
Could Win: It seems likely that "Roma" will win, but either of these two could pull an upset: Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody
Should Win: "Roma" is a great movie and I'll be glad to see it win, but my pick is "BlacKkKlansman."
Should Have Been Nominated: Substitute "Burning," "The Ballad of Buster Scruggs," "If Beale Street Could Talk," "Blindspotting," "Cold War," "First Reformed" and either "Widows" or "Shoplifters" for "Black Panther," "Bohemian Rhapsody," "The Favourite," "Green Book," "A Star is Born" or "Vice." Yes, I know, only two movies ("Roma" and "BlacKkKlansman") should have been nominated, in my opinion.
Best Director
Nominees: Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Adam McKay (Vice)
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Could Win: Spike Lee, who's never even been nominated, if you can believe that.
Should Win: I'm good with either Cuaron or Lee. I've previously given it to Lee (for "Do the Right Thing") and have never given it to Cuaron (until this year, I split my favorites for picture and director).
Should Have Been Nominated: Lee Chang-dong (Burning), Joel and Ethan Coen (Ballad of Buster Scruggs), Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Best Actor
Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Will Win: Rami Malek
Could Win: Christian Bale or Viggo Mortensen
Should Win: Ethan Hawke (for "First Reformed"). But he's not nominated, you say. Exactly! Seriously, WTF. Hawke gave the best performance this year of anyone in any category. He was seriously robbed. Of those nominated, I'd go with Mortensen.
Should Have Been Nominated: Um, yeah, Ethan Hawke, and John David Washington (for "BlacKkKlansman"), who I'd switch out for either Bale and Dafoe.
Best Actress
Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Glenn Close (The Wife), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Lady Gaga (A Star is Born), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Will Win: Glenn Close, up for her seventh nomination without ever having won, will finally get her due.
Could Win: If there's an upset, it'll likely be from Olivia Colman.
Should Win: I'll go with Lady Gaga, although I'd be fine seeing Close finally win. Colman is also great, but it's more of a supporting role. McCarthy is also very good and Aparicio makes a stunning debut performance (and, frankly, I'd be glad to see her win too).
Should Have Been Nominated: Joanna Kulig, who lit up the screen in "Cold War," and Toni Collette, who was terrifying in "Hereditary"
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliott (A Star is Born), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Sam Rockwell (Vice)
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, looking to score his second win
Could Win: Sam Elliott, a legend who has never won
Should Win: Richard E. Grant, a legend who has never been nominated and finally gets his due.
Should Have Been Nominated: Steven Yeun (of "Burning") or Stephan James ("If Beale Street Could Talk")
Best Supporting Actress:
Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Marina de Tavira (Roma), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Will Win: Regina King, who has taken nearly every single critics' group award
Could Win: Rachel Weisz or Amy Adams, who has also been nominated numerous times and never won, could be the upset.
Should Win: Regina King. She has won nearly every award for a reason.
Should Have Been Nominated: Zoe Kazan (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, BlacKkKlansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, A Star is Born, If Beale Street Could Talk
Will Win: BlacKkKlansman, thankfully. At least it'll win something.
Could Win: I don't see an upset here, but it there's one, it could be from "If Beale Street Could Talk."
Should Win: BlacKkKlansman
Should Have Been Nominated: Burning
Original Screenplay
Nominees: The Favourite, First Reformed, Green Book, Roma, Vice
Will Win: The Favourite
Could Win: Originally, I would have said "Green Book," but the controversy surrounding its screenwriter will likely prevent that. If the Academy wants to give an award to someone ridiculously long overdue, they can award Paul Schrader for "First Reformed."
Should Win: I'm fine with "The Favourite" winning (it's very well written), although I'd be even happier to see "First Reformed" get the award.
Should Have Been Nominated: Blindspotting, a sleeper and this year's best directorial debut
Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Capernaum (Lebanon), Cold War (Poland), Never Look Away (Germany), Roma (Mexico), Shoplifters (Japan)
Will Win: It'll be a first, but "Roma" is likely to win Best Picture and Best Foreign Film.
Could Win: If the Academy wants to split it up, they could award Pawel Pawlikowski's haunting "Cold War."
Should Win: Definitely "Roma," although this category has some very solid second choices - namely, "Cold War" and "Shoplifters."
Should Have Been Nominated: South Korea's "Burning" - seriously, how did this not get nominated? Also, Italy's "Happy as Lazzaro"
Animated Feature
Nominees: Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Wreck It Ralph 2: Ralph Breaks the Internet, SpiderMan: Into the Spider-Verse
Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Could Win: Incredibles 2
Should Win: Isle of Dogs. Yes, I know it's drawn some controversy, but it's really the best of the bunch here.
Should Have Been Nominated: I've got nothing.
Original Score
Nominees: BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, If Beale Street Could Talk, Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns
Will Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Could Win: BlacKkKlansman
Should Win: BlacKkKlansman
Should Have Been Nominated: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Original Song:
Nominees: "All the Stars" (Black Panther), "I'll Fight" (RBG), "The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns), "Shallow" (A Star is Born), "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" (Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
Will Win: "Shallow," undoubtedly
Could Win: "Shallow, undoubtedly. If there's an upset, maybe "All the Stars"
Should Win: My personal choice is "All the Stars," although I'd have no problem with "Shallow" winning.
Should Have Been Nominated: Although "All the Stars" is very good, I prefer Kendrick Lamar's other hit from "Black Panther" - "Pray for Me."
Cinematography
Nominees: Cold War, The Favourite, Never Look Away, Roma, A Star is Born
Will Win: Roma, for its gorgeous black and white photography
Could Win: Cold War, another gorgeous black and white film
Should Win: "Roma," although "Cold War" is also worthy
Should Have Been Nominated: "The Ballad of Buster Scruggs" and "If Beale Street Could Talk" were robbed.
Documentary
Nominees: Free Solo, Hale County: This Morning This Evening, Minding the Gap, Of Fathers and Sons, RBG
Will Win: Free Solo
Could Win: Hale County: This Morning This Evening
Should Win: I'm ashamed to say it, but I haven't seen any of these. I plan to catch up with "Free Solo" and "Hale County" at the least.
Should Have Been Nominated: "Shirkers," the year's most unique documentary
Production Design
Nominees: Black Panther, The Favourite, First Man, Mary Poppins Returns, Roma
Will Win: The Favourite
Could Win: Black Panther
Should Win: The Favourite
Should Have Been Nominated: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Sound Mixing
Nominees: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, Roma, A Star is Born
Will Win: A tough call, but probably "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Could Win: Maybe either "A Star is Born" or "First Man"
Should Win: Probably "A Star is Born," although "Roma" did interesting things with sound
Should Have Been Nominated: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Costume Design
Nominees: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Black Panther, The Favourite, Mary Poppins Returns, Mary Queen of Scots
Will Win: The Favourite
Could Win: Black Panther
Should Win: The Favourite
Should Have Been Nominated: "Mandy" - yeah, I said it.
Film Editing
Nominees: BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Vice
Will Win: Most likely "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Could Win: BlacKkKlansman
Should Win: BlacKkKlansman
Should Have Been Nominated: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs and Roma (a strange omission)
Sound Editing
Nominees: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, A Quiet Place, Roma
Will Win: Probably "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Could Win: A Quiet Place
Should Win: Perhaps "A Quiet Place." As Miles Davis once said, "It's not the notes you play, it's the notes you don't play."
Should Have Been Nominated: A Star is Born
Makeup and Hair Styling
Nominees: Border, Mary Queen of Scots, Vice
Will Win: Vice
Could Win: Mary Queen of Scots
Should Win: "Border" makes inventive use of makeup and "Vice" convincingly turns Christian Bale into Dick Cheney. Either one is fine by me.
Should Have Been Nominated: The Favourite
Visual Effects
Nominees: Avengers: Infinity War, Christopher Robbin, First Man, Ready Player One, Star Wars: Solo: A Star Wars Story
Will Win: "First Man," I think
Could Win: Ready Player One
Should Win: First Man
Should Have Been Nominated: Black Panther
I haven't seen any of the nominees in the Live Action Short, Animated Short Film and Documentary Short categories, so I'm not going to try to predict those.
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