Oscar Predictions: Who Will And Should Win

Image courtesy of E! Online.

It's been an odd Oscar season. At one point or another, nearly every nominee in each major Academy Award category has been projected to win. Various controversies or wins at other award shows have caused Oscar prognosticators to change their predictions multiple times in recent months.

As always, my thoughts on the Academy Awards remain this: I watch the show for amusement, but in no way do I believe that the Oscars represent the best in filmmaking from any given year. Among the 90 films to have won Best Picture, there have only been 15 that I consider to have been the best movies of the year in which they were awarded.

So, below find my list of who I think will win the Oscar this year, plus who I believe the dark horse candidate for an upset could be as well as who I'd personally like to win and who should have been nominated.

Best Picture
Nominees: BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star is Born, Vice
Will Win: Roma
Could Win: It seems likely that "Roma" will win, but either of these two could pull an upset: Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody
Should Win: "Roma" is a great movie and I'll be glad to see it win, but my pick is "BlacKkKlansman."
Should Have Been Nominated: Substitute "Burning," "The Ballad of Buster Scruggs," "If Beale Street Could Talk," "Blindspotting," "Cold War," "First Reformed" and either "Widows" or "Shoplifters" for "Black Panther," "Bohemian Rhapsody," "The Favourite," "Green Book," "A Star is Born" or "Vice." Yes, I know, only two movies ("Roma" and "BlacKkKlansman") should have been nominated, in my opinion.

Best Director
Nominees: Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Adam McKay (Vice)
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Could Win: Spike Lee, who's never even been nominated, if you can believe that.
Should Win: I'm good with either Cuaron or Lee. I've previously given it to Lee (for "Do the Right Thing") and have never given it to Cuaron (until this year, I split my favorites for picture and director).
Should Have Been Nominated: Lee Chang-dong (Burning), Joel and Ethan Coen (Ballad of Buster Scruggs), Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Best Actor
Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Will Win: Rami Malek
Could Win: Christian Bale or Viggo Mortensen
Should Win: Ethan Hawke (for "First Reformed"). But he's not nominated, you say. Exactly! Seriously, WTF. Hawke gave the best performance this year of anyone in any category. He was seriously robbed. Of those nominated, I'd go with Mortensen.
Should Have Been Nominated: Um, yeah, Ethan Hawke, and John David Washington (for "BlacKkKlansman"), who I'd switch out for either Bale and Dafoe.

Best Actress
Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Glenn Close (The Wife), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Lady Gaga (A Star is Born), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Will Win: Glenn Close, up for her seventh nomination without ever having won, will finally get her due.
Could Win: If there's an upset, it'll likely be from Olivia Colman.
Should Win: I'll go with Lady Gaga, although I'd be fine seeing Close finally win. Colman is also great, but it's more of a supporting role. McCarthy is also very good and Aparicio makes a stunning debut performance (and, frankly, I'd be glad to see her win too).
Should Have Been Nominated: Joanna Kulig, who lit up the screen in "Cold War," and Toni Collette, who was terrifying in "Hereditary"

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliott (A Star is Born), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Sam Rockwell (Vice)
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, looking to score his second win
Could Win: Sam Elliott, a legend who has never won
Should Win: Richard E. Grant, a legend who has never been nominated and finally gets his due.
Should Have Been Nominated: Steven Yeun (of "Burning") or Stephan James ("If Beale Street Could Talk")

Best Supporting Actress:
Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Marina de Tavira (Roma), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Will Win: Regina King, who has taken nearly every single critics' group award
Could Win: Rachel Weisz or Amy Adams, who has also been nominated numerous times and never won, could be the upset.
Should Win: Regina King. She has won nearly every award for a reason.
Should Have Been Nominated: Zoe Kazan (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)

Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, BlacKkKlansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, A Star is Born, If Beale Street Could Talk
Will Win: BlacKkKlansman, thankfully. At least it'll win something.
Could Win: I don't see an upset here, but it there's one, it could be from "If Beale Street Could Talk."
Should Win: BlacKkKlansman
Should Have Been Nominated: Burning

Original Screenplay
Nominees: The Favourite, First Reformed, Green Book, Roma, Vice
Will Win: The Favourite
Could Win: Originally, I would have said "Green Book," but the controversy surrounding its screenwriter will likely prevent that. If the Academy wants to give an award to someone ridiculously long overdue, they can award Paul Schrader for "First Reformed."
Should Win: I'm fine with "The Favourite" winning (it's very well written), although I'd be even happier to see "First Reformed" get the award.
Should Have Been Nominated: Blindspotting, a sleeper and this year's best directorial debut

Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Capernaum (Lebanon), Cold War (Poland), Never Look Away (Germany), Roma (Mexico), Shoplifters (Japan)
Will Win: It'll be a first, but "Roma" is likely to win Best Picture and Best Foreign Film.
Could Win: If the Academy wants to split it up, they could award Pawel Pawlikowski's haunting "Cold War."
Should Win: Definitely "Roma," although this category has some very solid second choices - namely, "Cold War" and "Shoplifters."
Should Have Been Nominated: South Korea's "Burning" - seriously, how did this not get nominated? Also, Italy's "Happy as Lazzaro"

Animated Feature
Nominees: Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Wreck It Ralph 2: Ralph Breaks the Internet, SpiderMan: Into the Spider-Verse
Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Could Win: Incredibles 2
Should Win: Isle of Dogs. Yes, I know it's drawn some controversy, but it's really the best of the bunch here.
Should Have Been Nominated: I've got nothing.

Original Score
Nominees: BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, If Beale Street Could Talk, Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns
Will Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Could Win: BlacKkKlansman
Should Win: BlacKkKlansman
Should Have Been Nominated: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Original Song:
Nominees: "All the Stars" (Black Panther), "I'll Fight" (RBG), "The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns), "Shallow" (A Star is Born), "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" (Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
Will Win: "Shallow," undoubtedly
Could Win: "Shallow, undoubtedly. If there's an upset, maybe "All the Stars"
Should Win: My personal choice is "All the Stars," although I'd have no problem with "Shallow" winning.
Should Have Been Nominated: Although "All the Stars" is very good, I prefer Kendrick Lamar's other hit from "Black Panther" - "Pray for Me."

Cinematography
Nominees: Cold War, The Favourite, Never Look Away, Roma, A Star is Born
Will Win: Roma, for its gorgeous black and white photography
Could Win: Cold War, another gorgeous black and white film
Should Win: "Roma," although "Cold War" is also worthy
Should Have Been Nominated: "The Ballad of Buster Scruggs" and "If Beale Street Could Talk" were robbed.

Documentary
Nominees: Free Solo, Hale County: This Morning This Evening, Minding the Gap, Of Fathers and Sons, RBG
Will Win: Free Solo
Could Win: Hale County: This Morning This Evening
Should Win: I'm ashamed to say it, but I haven't seen any of these. I plan to catch up with "Free Solo" and "Hale County" at the least.
Should Have Been Nominated: "Shirkers," the year's most unique documentary

Production Design
Nominees: Black Panther, The Favourite, First Man, Mary Poppins Returns, Roma
Will Win: The Favourite
Could Win: Black Panther
Should Win: The Favourite
Should Have Been Nominated: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Sound Mixing
Nominees: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, Roma, A Star is Born
Will Win: A tough call, but probably "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Could Win: Maybe either "A Star is Born" or "First Man"
Should Win: Probably "A Star is Born," although "Roma" did interesting things with sound
Should Have Been Nominated: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Costume Design
Nominees: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Black Panther, The Favourite, Mary Poppins Returns, Mary Queen of Scots
Will Win: The Favourite
Could Win: Black Panther
Should Win: The Favourite
Should Have Been Nominated: "Mandy" - yeah, I said it.

Film Editing
Nominees: BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Vice
Will Win: Most likely "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Could Win: BlacKkKlansman
Should Win: BlacKkKlansman
Should Have Been Nominated: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs and Roma (a strange omission)

Sound Editing
Nominees: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, A Quiet Place, Roma
Will Win: Probably "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Could Win: A Quiet Place
Should Win: Perhaps "A Quiet Place." As Miles Davis once said, "It's not the notes you play, it's the notes you don't play."
Should Have Been Nominated: A Star is Born

Makeup and Hair Styling
Nominees: Border, Mary Queen of Scots, Vice
Will Win: Vice
Could Win: Mary Queen of Scots
Should Win: "Border" makes inventive use of makeup and "Vice" convincingly turns Christian Bale into Dick Cheney. Either one is fine by me.
Should Have Been Nominated: The Favourite

Visual Effects
Nominees: Avengers: Infinity War, Christopher Robbin, First Man, Ready Player One, Star Wars: Solo: A Star Wars Story
Will Win: "First Man," I think
Could Win: Ready Player One
Should Win: First Man
Should Have Been Nominated: Black Panther

I haven't seen any of the nominees in the Live Action Short, Animated Short Film and Documentary Short categories, so I'm not going to try to predict those.

Review: Happy Death Day 2U

Image courtesy of Universal Pictures.

If the original horror-comedy hybrid film "Happy Death Day" borrowed heavily from "Groundhog Day," then this sequel is a riff on "Back to the Future Part II" - so much so, in fact, that two characters in the movie make a point of referencing it in case there was ever any doubt.

While the first film was a mostly fun, tongue in cheek slasher film with a protagonist for whom you could root, the sequel is more of a science fiction picture with some mushy family drama in the mix. That's not to say that I didn't enjoy it - it's fun enough, but the film bites off a little more than it can chew narratively and feels less like a horror movie than the original.

Rather than attempt to explain the science that makes the story possible, suffice it to say that the movie kicks off with a different character - this time, Ryan (Phi Vu), roommate of Carter (Israel Broussard), who is the boyfriend of Tree (Jessica Rothe) - finding himself stuck in the time loop.

However, the picture quickly provides an explanation for the conundrum. As it turns out, Ryan and several of his brainy pals created a science project involving time loops that resulted in Tree reliving the same day over and over. On the other hand, it doesn't explain why Tree, but none of the other students on her school's campus, was caught in the loop.

Regardless, Ryan manages to escape the loop, but accidentally forces Tree back into it. This time, however, much less time is spent on figuring out the mystery and battling the baby-masked killer - who isn't the same murderer from the original film - and more is spent on Tree realizing that she should cherish the time she has with those she cares about. There's a plot twist involving a different dimension and a particular character who Tree runs into there, but I won't give it away.

"Happy Death Day 2U" mostly thrives as a comedy with a sci-fi thread and a few jump scares, rather than as a full-fledged slasher sequel. It's a sequel that probably didn't need to exist, but it's a step above the typical cash grab follow ups that typically play the same note over and over - which is amusing to consider since the film's protagonists relive the same day multiple times. The film falls short of the original, but as far as follow-ups go, you could do much worse.

Review: Isn't It Romantic

Image courtesy of Warner Bros.

Even when it veers toward becoming the type of film that is lampooning, "Isn't It Romantic" is a mostly charming and often funny, thanks to Rebel Wilson, send-up of Hollywood romantic comedies. The film follows the same plotline as that of the 1991 comedy "Delirious," in which a screenwriter for a soap opera played by John Candy gets into an accident and wakes up as a character in the soap opera.

In this picture, Wilson plays Natalie, a young woman who is disenchanted with romance and, as we see during an amusing early sequence set in Australia, not a fan of romantic comedies after her mother tells her that the films are primarily made up of lies that give young women unrealistic expectations.

Natalie works at a small architecture firm in Manhattan and lives in a shabby apartment in Queens. At work, a co-worker named Josh (Adam Devine), whom she keeps in the "friend zone," clearly has a crush on her, and her best friend and secretary, Whitney (Betty Gilpin), repeatedly attempts and fails to convince her that mushy screen romances could be the fodder of Natalie's life if she only opened up a bit.

After escaping a mugging in the subway, Natalie bangs her head and wakes up in, you guessed it, a romantic comedy, complete with a flamboyantly gay BFF neighbor, Donny (Brandon Scott Jones, who nabs many of the movie's best zingers), an apartment that anyone making less than $1 million per year could not afford, a ridiculously full shoe closet, a higher profile position in her company, a hot millionaire (Liam Hemsworth) interested in her, voice over narration that occasionally follows her around, 1980s and 1990s tunes ("Kiss Me" and "No More I Love Yous," for example) randomly playing in the background and a penchant for finding herself in the middle of random musical and dance numbers.

The film's central gag - Natalie being stuck in a rom com - is milked for all its worth and, truth be told, it's pretty funny overall. It helps that Wilson's cynical Natalie provides a good foil for the trappings of the genre. I had a good laugh when Natalie blows off a montage of trying on clothes to the tune of Black Box's "Everybody, Everybody," much to the dismay of Donny.

While the picture parodies a number of popular rom coms - and even lifts lines from the likes of "When Harry Met Sally" and "Jerry Maguire" - it ultimately becomes a riff on the Julia Roberts film "My Best Friend's Wedding," with Natalie realizing that Hemsworth's slightly controlling looker doesn't hold a candle to Josh, her best friend who actually deeply cares for her and is about to get married to a "yoga ambassador" played by Priyanka Chopra. And much to Natalie's chagrin, the film culminates with a slow motion run to a wedding chapel to break up a ceremony.

While a few scenes in "Isn't It Romantic" could have been left on the cutting room floor - did we really need not one, but two musical numbers? - it's a mostly breezy rom com satire. Naturally, it ends up adopting the cliches that it parodies, which often ends up being the curse of a movie of this sort. Regardless, "Isn't It Romantic" is pretty fun.

Review: Cold Pursuit

Image courtesy of Lionsgate.

"Cold Pursuit" fulfills the annual obligation for a Liam Neeson late winter action film, although the film often feels more like a Tarantino knockoff than a "Taken" sequel - and it's all the better for it. Based on the Norwegian film "In Order of Disappearance" and made by the same director, Hans Petter Moland, "Cold Pursuit" is narratively all over the place and often comes off as a satire of the type of film you'd expect it to be.

As the picture opens, Neeson's Nels Coxman (where do they come up with these names?) is a snowplow driver in a small town outside Denver where he has been named "citizen of the year." My first question while watching the picture was, "Is it possible that it snows this much in Denver?" Nels' son works at the airport, and early in the film he is murdered by a slimy Denver gangster known as Viking (Tom Bateman) after he and a pal tried to steal a suitcase full of money.

The young man's death leads to a rift in Nels' marriage to Grace (Laura Dern, seen only too briefly), and he is quickly consumed by a need to track down his son's killers. But as he starts moving up the food chain, hunting down Viking's men and killing several of them, he sets off a gangland war between Viking and a group of Native American drug smugglers, who are led by White Bull (Tom Jackson), and manages to get his ex-gangster brother (played by William Forsythe) into the mix.

The film has a running gag in which a character's name appears onscreen with a cross next to it after they have been bumped off. A very obvious joke occurs following a major shootout involving a number of the characters, and the picture ends on a gag involving a man using a hang glider that is, frankly, pretty hilarious. In many ways, "Cold Pursuit," despite its constant bloodshed, is more of a comedy than an action film - and Neeson isn't quite the tough guy character here that he has played in recent films, such as the "Taken" pictures.

Still, the movie is, as I'd mentioned, a Tarantino knockoff, meaning it doesn't rise to the level of that director's work. But it's still pretty fun and a welcome relief from the Neeson action films that have become an annual event in recent years. It's especially welcome that "Cold Pursuit" isn't a typical Neeson vengeance movie in light of the actor's recent unsettling discussions about vengeance fantasies. If you can disassociate yourself for a moment from that revelation, then you might enjoy "Cold Pursuit," which is an amusing action thriller that goes as heavy on the comedy as it does the bloodletting.

Review: High Flying Bird

Image courtesy of Netflix.

Professional athletes have increasingly been fighting to control their own public image, take for instance kneeling football players, and combating the commodification that results from signing a contract. This concept is explored thoughtfully in Steven Soderbergh's "High Flying Bird," a 90-minute sports drama quite unlike any you've probably ever seen.

In fact, there's exactly one scene in the film in which a sport - in this case, basketball - is seen being played, and that's on a few quick flashes of a YouTube video. The picture is primarily set in the board rooms, living rooms and restaurants where sports deals are made and the real "game," as the film's lead character, Ray (Andre Holland, of "Moonlight"), says is played.

In the film, Ray is struggling to stay afloat during an NBA lockout. Ray is the agent for several basketball players, most notably number-one pick Erick Scott (Melvin Gregg), a self-proclaimed street ball player, and he has been told by his "indispensable" assistant (Zazie Beetz) that she's taking a new job. Meanwhile, his boss (Zachary Quinto) tells him that his expense accounts have been frozen, prompting him to try to put pressure on an NBA union rep (Sonja Sohn) and the head of the owners group (Kyle MacLachlan) to do something to end the lockout.

In between, Ray spends his time meeting with the mother cum agent for Erick's rookie competition to attempt to convince her to let him represent her son or dropping in on an old mentor (Bill Duke) who runs a basketball camp. Ray hatches a plan to draw some attention by setting up Erick and his rival to show up at the basketball camp and play one-on-one (hence, the YouTube video).

In the Soderbergh cannon, Ray is similar to Danny Ocean or Jack Foley, George Clooney's character in "Out of Sight." He's a fast talker who is always one step ahead of everyone else. In "High Flying Bird," he is trying to find success outside of the "game behind the game," as Duke's character puts it - in other words, a business in which white sports team owners control the lives of the black players they sign. To drive this concept home, there are some interesting interviews interspersed throughout the film with real players, such as Karl Anthony-Towns and Donovan Mitchell.

The film has a sharp and witty script and looks pretty damn good, considering that it was shot, much like Soderbergh's recent "Unsane," on an iPhone. The director has long been one who has favored experimentation and dabbling in different filmmaking formats. "High Flying Bird" could be categorized among Soderbergh's experimental side projects - for example, "Bubble" or "The Girlfriend Experience" - but it's closer in quality to his high profile films, such as "Traffic" and "Sex, Lies and Videotape." It's well worth a watch.

Review: Velvet Buzzsaw

Image courtesy of Netflix.

Various works of art have been deemed dangerous over the years, but none so much, perhaps, as the haunted paintings that kill people in Dan Gilroy's horror movie cum art world satire "Velvet Buzzsaw." Alternately suspenseful and sardonically humorous, the picture remains consistently interesting even when it borders on being silly.

The film targets those who degrade art by commodifying it, from the gallery owners and critics to the artists themselves, their agents and pretentious buyers. In Gilroy's film, those who profit off art are punished by a series of creepy paintings from a mysterious unknown artist known as Vetril Dease, whose spooky work appears to hail from his own painful history.

Dease's work is discovered by gallery assistant Josephina (Zawe Ashton), who uses her find to eke out a doozy of a deal with her ruthless boss, Rhodora (Rene Russo). Josephina becomes involved with Morf (Jake Gyllenhaal), a bisexual art critic who also wants in on the action after viewing Dease's cryptic work and knows there is something unique about it. Others who take interest include an installment technician (Billy Magnussen), several artists (one with artist's block played by John Malkovich and an upcoming artist portrayed by Daveed Diggs), an agent known as Jon Dondon (Tom Sturridge) and a cutthroat gallery manager (Toni Collette). The only character to remain unscathed in the discovery is Coco (Natalia Dyer), a young assistant who bounces from gallery to gallery.

Following the discovery of Dease's work, the film's various characters find themselves trying to outwit one another in order to use the paintings for their own benefit, whether that's landing it in a gallery or museum exhibit, selling it to the highest bidder or getting a book deal out of it. Josephina notes early on that Dease, whom she finds dead in his apartment, had apparently wanted all of the work to be destroyed. The characters should have heeded the warning.

While the film's first half focuses more on the satire, its second half plays as a slasher film with a series of paintings acting as the killer. One's capacity to enjoy the film might be determined by whether one can swallow the silly premise. And yet, "Velvet Buzzsaw" is a gorgeously shot L.A. noir featuring some terrific nighttime and daytime shots of the city's skyline and boasts some solid performances. As a horror movie, it is often creepy.

Perhaps Gilroy's film doesn't say much about the pretensions of the art world and the commodification of art that hasn't already been said numerous times before, but the movie is an often humorous - and occasionally bloody - horror satire. It might not be as good as the director's neo-noir "Nightcrawler," which included a fairly potent indictment of TV news, but when you see as many movies as I do each year, originality becomes a sought-after prize - and "Velvet Buzzsaw" is quite unlike anything else you'll likely see this year.