Oscar Picks: Who Will (and Should) Win

Image courtesy of Jeff Monteith.

The 86th Academy Awards ceremony will be held this Sunday, so I'm providing my annual rundown of which films I believe will win and which I believe should win. And, just for the hell of it, I'm throwing in my picks for the biggest snubs in each category.

Best Picture
Nominees: 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, The Wolf of Wall Street
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave (maybe)
Could Win: Gravity (maybe)
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Biggest Snub: Inside Llewyn Davis

Best Director
Nominees: Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity), Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave), Alexander Payne (Nebraska), David O. Russell (American Hustle), Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Could Win: Steve McQueen
Should Win: Steve McQueen
Biggest Snubs: Spike Jonze (Her), Joel and Ethan Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis)

Best Actor
Nominees: Christian Bale (American Hustle), Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street), Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave), Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey
Could Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor
Biggest Snub: Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)

Best Actress
Nominees: Amy Adams (American Hustle), Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), Judi Dench (Philomena), Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Could Win: Cate Blanchett. Oh, OK. Sandra Bullock could somehow pull out a win, but it's likely Blanchett all the way.
Should Win: Wait for it... Cate Blanchett
Biggest Snubs: Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue is the Warmest Color)

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave), Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street), Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Will Win: Jared Leto
Could Win: Barkhad Abdi could be the upset here, but it doesn't seem likely that Leto is going to lose this one.
Should Win: Michael Fassbender
Biggest Snubs: Not too many in this category. I suppose you could make the argument for Jeremy Renner in American Hustle, but this category is pretty spot on.

Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave), June Squibb (Nebraska), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o
Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o
Biggest Snub: Lea Seydoux (Blue is the Warmest Color) and, no kidding, the voice of Scarlett Johansson (Her).



Animated Film
Nominees: The Croods, Despicable Me 2, Ernest and Celestine, Frozen, The Wind Rises
Will Win: Frozen
Could Win: The Wind Rises
Should Win: To be honest, I've only seen one of the nominees in this category, The Wind Rises.

Cinematography
Nominees: The Grandmaster, Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, Prisoners
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Inside Llewyn Davis
Should Win: Inside Llewyn Davis or Gravity
Biggest Snubs: Umm, 12 Years a Slave. Big head scratcher in this category.

Costume Design
Nominees: American Hustle, The Grandmaster, The Great Gatsby, The Invisible Woman, 12 Years a Slave
Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Could Win: American Hustle
Should Win: American Hustle
Biggest Snubs: None spring immediately to mind.

Documentary
Nominees: The Act of Killing, Cutie and the Boxer, Dirty Wars, The Square, 20 Feet from Stardom
Will Win: The Square
Could Win: The Act of Killing
Should Win: This is a category I tend to pick the most substantive. However, this year my personal favorite of these five nominees was 20 Feet from Stardom.
Biggest Snubs: Stories We Tell

Film Editing
Nominees: American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, 12 Years a Slave
Will Win: Captain Phillips
Could Win: Gravity
Should Win: Gravity
Biggest Snubs: Inside Llewyn Davis

Foreign Film
Nominees: The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium), The Great Beauty (Italy), The Hunt (Denmark), The Missing Picture (Cambodia), Omar (Palestine)
Will Win: The Great Beauty
Could Win: Omar
Should Win: The Hunt
Biggest Snubs: Here is the one category where you can't really blame the Academy. The five picks are based on which films are submitted by each individual country and, quite often, the year's best foreign films are not submitted by their own nations. That being said, where the hell is Blue is the Warmest Color? I mean, seriously.

Makeup and Hair Styling
Nominees: Dallas Buyers Club, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, The Lone Ranger
Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Could Win: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa 
Should Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Biggest Snub: American Hustle

Music
Nominees: The Book Thief, Gravity, Her, Philomena, Saving Mr. Banks
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Philomena
Should Win: Her
Biggest Snub: 12 Years a Slave, Inside Llewyn Davis and Prisoners would have all been good picks.

Music: Original Song
Nominees: Happy (Despicable Me 2), Let It Go (Frozen), The Moon Song (Her), Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Will Win: Let It Go (Frozen)
Could Win: Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Should Win: The Moon Song (Her)

Production Design
Nominees: American Hustle, Gravity, The Great Gatsby, Her, 12 Years a Slave
Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Could Win: Gravity
Should Win: Gravity
Biggest Snubs: Inside Llewyn Davis

Sound Editing
Nominees: All is Lost, Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Lone Survivor
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Captain Phillips
Should Win: Gravity
Biggest Snubs: Inside Llewyn Davis

Sound Mixing
Nominees: Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Inside Llewyn Davis, Lone Survivor
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Inside Llewyn Davis
Should Win: Gravity

Visual Effects
Nominees: Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Iron Man 3, The Lone Ranger, Star Trek Into Darkness
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Ha, ha, ha. Wait, are you serious? You can't possible me. OK, I knew you were joking. Yes, it's going to be Gravity.
Biggest Snubs: I didn't love Pacific Rim as much as some others did, but it probably deserved a nomination in this category.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Nominees: Before Midnight, Captain Phillips, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: The Wolf of Wall Street
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Biggest Snubs: Blue is the Warmest Color

Writing (Original Screenplay)
Nominees: American Hustle, Blue Jasmine, Dallas Buyers Club, Her, Nebraska
Will Win: American Hustle
Could Win: Her
Should Win: A tough call between American Hustle and Her, both of which exhibited terrific writing. Maybe I'll go with American Hustle, but just by a hair.
Biggest Snubs: Assholes! You couldn't even nominate Inside Llewyn Davis in the screenplay category? Jeez. Also, might have been nice to include the much-underrated Prisoners or even Frances Ha.